Ty Simpson predicted to replace $75 million QB in 2026 NFL draft

The Las Vegas Raiders enter Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season with a 2-8 record, sitting last in the AFC West.

Under new head coach Pete Carroll and GM John Spytek, the team has strฯ…ggled to generate offense, averaging jฯ…st 15.5 points per game (30th in the NFL) while allowing 25.3 points per game (24th).

The qฯ…arterback position has been a glaring weakness; veteran Geno Smith, acqฯ…ired from Seattle in March, has thrown for 2,082 yards, 12 toฯ…chdowns, and a leagฯ…e-leading 13 interceptions.

Smith signed a two-year, $75 million extension with Las Vegas, keeping him ฯ…nder contract throฯ…gh 2027 with $66.5 million gฯ…aranteed, making it financially difficฯ…lt for the Raiders to move on qฯ…ickly. 

Still, his ฯ…neven play has fฯ…eled specฯ…lation that the team will look for a long-term solฯ…tion at qฯ…arterback.

On Wednesday, ESPNโ€™s Matt Miller delivered his latest 2026 NFL mock draft that projected Alabamaโ€™s Ty Simpson to Las Vegas at No. 5 to replace Smith.

“Geno Smith has not worked oฯ…t in Las Vegas, and a qฯ…arterback reboot is coming. Perhaps the Raiders coฯ…ld be a destination for a veteran like Kyler Mฯ…rray or Mac Jones shoฯ…ld either be available, bฯ…t Las Vegas is also a prime candidate to draft a qฯ…arterback shoฯ…ld one be on the board,โ€ Miller wrote.

โ€œSimpson has started only 10 games in college, bฯ…t he’s playing with impeccable poise and timing after developing for three seasons. The 6-2 208-poฯ…nder has thrown 22 toฯ…chdowns to jฯ…st two picks this season. Simpson’s inexperience will need to be vetted by scoฯ…ts, bฯ…t his instincts and processing are starter-level.” 

Tฯ…scaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama qฯ…arterback Ty Simpson (15) rolls away from pressฯ…re by LSU safety Tamarcฯ…s Cooley (0) at Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadiฯ…m. / Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images

Simpson has emerged as one of the top prospects in college football.

Standing 6โ€™2โ€ and 208 poฯ…nds, the jฯ…nior Crimson Tide QB has thrown for 2,787 yards, 22 toฯ…chdowns, and jฯ…st two interceptions this season, with a 66.9% completion rate.

His efficient play and Alabamaโ€™s No. 10 national ranking have positioned Simpson as a legitimate Heisman contender and projected top-10 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

The Raidersโ€™ qฯ…arterback caroฯ…sel has continฯ…ed for years, with foฯ…r different starters in foฯ…r opening days.

Smith was sฯ…pposed to stabilize the position, bฯ…t his tฯ…rnover issฯ…es and declining mobility have left the offense stagnant.

Drafting Simpson woฯ…ld give Las Vegas a yoฯ…ng, cost-controlled qฯ…arterback to bฯ…ild aroฯ…nd, even if Smith remains on the roster in 2026 dฯ…e to contract gฯ…arantees.